Synthesis – Kilimanjaro as an integrated Social-Ecological System

The coordinated and interdisciplinary framework and data collection in the Kili-SES research unit (RU) present an unprecedented opportunity to develop a holistic understanding of how the major components of a social-ecological system (SES) operate and interact, and what the systems social and ecological potential for transformation is. SP7 aims to provide a holistic understanding of the Kilimanjaro social-ecological system by synthesizing systems, target and transformation knowledge. This endeavor involves examining both natural and social drivers and effects, with the goal of pinpointing avenues for policy.

Objectives

The overall objective of SP7 is to develop systems, target, and transformation knowledge on the Kilimanjaro SES through the synthesis of SPs 1-6 of Kili-SES-1 and Kili-SES-2.

1. Systems knowledge (WP1): We develop systems knowledge through the NCP multifunctionality framework, which allows for quantifying and mapping NCP demand and supply for multiple stakeholder groups across the Kilimanjaro-SES and assessing the role of NCP for human well-being.
2. Target knowledge (WP2): We develop target knowledge through data-driven scenarios based on the aforementioned systems knowledge as well as through participatory Nature Futures as envisioned in the IPBES Nature Futures Framework.
3. Transformation knowledge (WP3): We create transformation knowledge by synthesising leverage points for transformative change identified in SP4 (Individuals), SP3 (Initiatives), and SP5 (Institutions) and linking them to pathways for sustainable and just Nature Futures.
4. Data management (WP4): We curate the Kilimanjaro SES database, which follows state-of-the art data management practices including datasets from Kili-1, Kili-SES-1, and Kili-SES-2.

Outcome

First, we will continue to characterize the Kilimanjaro SES by studying the supply and demand dynamics of NCP and investigate how nature contributes to human well-being (WP1 Systems Knowledge). We plan to conduct Public Participation GIS (PPGIS) workshops to quantify demand for NCP in a spatially explicit way. To understand the spatial (mis)matches between NCP supply and demand, we will upscale the collected PPGIS data using spatial datasets on land cover and use (SP6), population, and roads. We will combine independently measured NCP supply, NCP demand, and human well-being data. Matches between NCP supply and demand – where NCP demand is met by accessible NCP supply – may positively relate to people’s well-being. Conversely, we expect that mismatches – that are cases where NCP demand is not met by accessible NCP supply – negatively relate to peoples’ well-being.

Second, we will generate data-driven scenarios and participatory Nature Futures and compare their outcome (WP2 Target Knowledge). We will build data-driven land-use, conservation, and restoration scenarios to explore possible changes within the Kilimanjaro SES. Building on systems knowledge from WP1 and WP2 of SP7 and from Kili-SES-1, we will then evaluate scenarios in terms of natures’ contributions to multiple stakeholder groups and equity, and evaluate how these effects differ across the landscapes. We will employ participatory processes to create Nature Futures, representing target knowledge for the Kilimanjaro SES. We will then representatively assess people’s preferences for the Nature Futures of the Kilimanjaro SES. As part of our work on Nature Futures, we will examine whether there is a shift in baseline between generations in the Kilimanjaro SES, which is important for exploring Nature Futures, to deepen our understanding of how generational experiences shape perceptions of nature and biodiversity in the Kilimanjaro SES.

Third, we will synthesize insights on leverage points for transformative change and link them to pathways for sustainable and just Nature Futures (WP3 Transformation Knowledge). To assess the social potential for transformation, we will identify leverage points for system transformation across scales, from individual people to initiatives and institutions, by synthesizing work conducted by SPs 3-5. Drawing on the SES knowledge of Mount Kilimanjaro, the work on future scenarios from Kili-SES-1, and the findings on Nature Futures (Task 2.2 of this subproject), we will envision pathways towards sustainable and just Nature Futures. We aim to identify the key interventions (key leverage points) by exploring the convergences of actions across pathways and to determine the factors that hinder or enable their effectiveness.

Finally, we will strengthen integrated long-term data management and storage following FAIR and CARE principles and train project members in state-of-the-art data handling methods (WP4 Data Management). We manage research data across all subprojects as well as provide statistical support, training and data management guidelines.

Team members

Prof. Dr. Katrin Böhning-Gaese (Principal Investigator)
Prof. Dr. Markus Fischer (Principal Investigator)
Vertr. Prof. Dr. Dirk Zeuss (Principal Investigator)
Prof. Dr. Berta Martín-López (Principal Investigator)
Dr. Susann Adloff (Co-Principal Investigator)
Angela Nyaki (Tanzanian Co-Principal Investigator)
Neema Robert Kinabo (Tanzanian Co-Principal Investigator)
Dr. Gaëlle Bocksberger (Scientific Data Curator)
Dr. Netra Bhandari (PostDoc)
Dr. Caroline Dabard (PostDoc)
Dr. Victoria Junquera (PostDoc)

(for more information see People page)